AI Asia Pacific Institute (AIAPI) President and Executive Director Kelly Forbes and Board Chair and Vice President Dr Peter Brimble spoke on February 12 at the Asian Development Bank’s Insights Thursday on the state of AI in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Over 120 participants were in attendance.
Their central message: AI will shape the futures of FCAS and SIDS whether they are ready or not. The key issue is whether those countries do so inclusively and responsibly.
Different Fragilities, Shared Constraints
While FCAS face conflict, instability, and humanitarian pressures, SIDS contend with small markets, geographic isolation, climate vulnerability, and reliance on external infrastructure
Despite these differences, both share core constraints:
- Limited institutional capacity
- External dependency
- High costs of policy failure
Early Stage; but Moving
AI adoption across FCAS and SIDS remains at a very early stage, with few national strategies in place. Activity is often project-based, donor-led, and externally operated
Yet AI is already being used in areas such as:
- Humanitarian logistics
- Disaster response and climate management
- Public health
- Digital identity and education access
Risks Escalate Faster
Weak digital infrastructure, limited data, low AI skills, and governance gaps mean risks can escalate quickly
These include:
- Widening digital divides
- Data bias
- Surveillance misuse
- Vendor lock-in and loss of sovereignty
In highly fragile systems, particularly SIDS, the margin for error is small.
From Digital Fragility to Resilient Readiness
Rather than advocating rapid AI deployment, AIAPI outlined a pathway to Resilient Readiness
Strengthen digital foundations such as connectivity, data systems, and digital rights.
- Build institutional readiness such as policy principles, coordination, safeguards, and oversight.
- Deploy context-appropriate AI with targeted, low-risk, high-impact use cases
Regional approaches based on shared governance, pooled expertise, and common infrastructure are essential to offset limited national capacity
Key Takeaway
The issue is not whether AI will reach fragile and small island states. It already has. The challenge is ensuring it strengthens resilience rather than deepening vulnerability.
AI support must be patient, context-aware, and focused on institutions they operate in.
We thank ADB for convening this important discussion and look forward to continued collaboration across the region.
Watch the entire session here
